Apologies for the lack of blogs entries, I was away on vacation last week. Weather was mixed during that time, storms and cooler weather around Canada Day then some nice mid week heat.  I was away in Toronto  last weekend so I also missed the rain and storms on the weekend in E.Ontario.  A friend in Ottawa reported 50 mm from the storm on Saturday morning, while the airport reported 22.6 mm for the day, so the storms where certainly scattered, and it was nice to see the grass green up again. It was also interesting to see how the models struggled with the strength of the systems and where the heavy rain would set up. The systems moving through are weaker from the weak jet stream this time of year so they tend to be scattered rather than well formed like the models predict.

Hope everyone is ready for this coming heatwave.  Humidity straight from the gulf should make it feel in the 40 C range for S.Ontario into E. Ontario and S. Quebec.

GFS july

The extreme heat will be short-lived as we trend more towards normal by Saturday. There is a chance of scattered rain from convection from now until then.  Certainly has been a lack of thunderstorms in S & E Ontario so far this year.

The rest of the month looks to warm up again after mid to late next week into the end of the month.

long range july

Fall/Winter clues

The latest long range from the Euro model does not favour a very strong La Nina for late fall/early winter. In fact it actually favours a more neutral state ENSO.  Bear in mind this is very early long range models.  Here is the current ocean temperature (as of June 29) which shows an end to the El Nino (warm water off the coast of South America) and starting to trend to a La Nina with cooler water:

la nina

Another long range model (the NMME) has a 60 -70% chance of a warmer than normal fall through to January.  The Euro model also supports the 70 % chance of a warm fall.  Remember a warm November – January doesn’t always translate into less snow.  If I had to venture a guess I would say we will have a weak to neutral ENSO pattern this winter, which means things can go either way; warm and snowless, or normal and stormy.  My thoughts are that Mother Nature will eventually even out the dry spell we have endured since spring at some point, and it very well maybe this winter…