The average high temperature for May in Ottawa ended at 21c, 2 degrees above normal (19c), while the mean average was 14.2c (normal is 13.3c)

ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_052016 I predicted 20c and was sure by mid month it wouldn’t happen but the really hot temperatures at the end of the month turned it around.  Really when you look back at May I wouldn’t have thought it was above normal.  What this means is for the 3 month spring temperatures things averaged out as normal to slightly above (above normal March, below for April, above for March).  Again looking back you wouldn’t really remember the spring as warm.

What you cant argue is how dry it continues to be. May’s average is 80.3mm and we only received 26.3mm! Thursday’s convective storms were a prime example of how certain areas might struggle to receive a good rain.  My location recorded under 1mm of rain, as did EC’S records for Ottawa, but many locations down near the St.Lawrence towards Kingston, north of Ottawa in Quebec, and areas north and northeast of Belleville got some pretty good rain.

Sunday looks like our best chance for a steady rain.  Most models have the heavy rain moving through most of the province, including E. ON and S. Quebec. However there is a chance the heaviest rain again stays south of Ottawa around the St, Lawrence into Montreal.  The system also lingers around until Wednesday or Thursday with mostly cloudy and the promised cool conditions and maybe the odd shower as the pattern becomes stuck in a block.  The GFS model has a return to near normal temperatures around June 10 -13th.  While other long range outlooks continue with cool conditions to mid June.

 

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