Hope everyone enjoyed the amazing long weekend weather. It isn’t often we have 3 consecutive days of sun and warm temperatures over the May long weekend. However, things are getting quite dry with below average rainfall since early April, and only 26 mm of rain in Ottawa so far when our average for the month is around 80 mm!! Some areas between Toronto and Belleville got some spotty convective storms on Sunday which would have been welcome up in my area.
Speaking of convective storms, the next 7 days will feature a chance of convective rain and a couple small fronts with humidity moving through starting tomorrow. With the strong sun, humidity and cooler upper atmosphere we get instability which starts their development. The problem with convective storms is they can be very localized, so your house might get a downpour and I get nothing. We can hope we all get to see at least one of these storms in the next week to provide some moisture relief. I think biggest chance of some consecutive rain will be Thursday evening into the overnight and then Friday night into Saturday.
We are now entering the season of less large low pressure systems and more convective storms, which are very hard to predict because of the localized factor, hence why you often have days in the summer where the weather agency predict showers but you get nothing all day.
If you want to follow the storms my weather friend Seaway posts updates; https://seawayweather.wordpress.com/
For the long range looks like we should start to return to normal temperatures (20c – 23c) starting somewhere around June 1st through till around June 13th before maybe more impressive heat returns. The pattern may look similar to May with the an El Nino feature; odd warm day mixed in between cooler days and dry, however, it won’t be as bad and cold as May.