Great stretch of warm weather finally taking hold in Ontario this weekend, lasting for more than the typical one or two days it has been.  By the end of the long weekend into Tuesday and Wednesday temperature could be pushing 30c with some humidity (finally!)  The above normal temperatures should last until May 28-29th, when some models are hitting for a return to a more normal temperatures (around 19-21c).

Here is the NAEFS from May 28th to early June with a prediction of normal temperatures:


Here is the GFS around May 30 with temperatures closer to normal:

may 30

The good news, in the foreseeable future, I don’t see any huge temperatures drops like we experienced this past Sunday – Tuesday, and multiple temps this spring.  Not to say that we are all done with below normal cold shots, as I could see them returning in June and possibly early July.  The positive thing being that are normal temperatures are increasing everyday beyond the 20c mark.

Speaking of colder temperatures, here is the month to date temperatures for May so far:

month to date

Brrrr for most of the USA and Eastern Canada…the outlook of above normal spring temperatures where certainly a fail this year…

Summer outlooks are starting to come out from the weather agencies.  TWN’s will be posting soon, and Accuweather published theirs yesterday.  I suspect many will predict an above normal summer as I pointed out in my previous post that many long range models are showing warmer than normal.

Again the issue will be how quickly the current El Nino fads and transitions over.  I could certainly see above normal, but I think it will be “back loaded”, meaning the warmest temperatures will likely be in August and September.  I could see things struggling at times in June into early July.

Here is the latest update (May 1st) from the JAMSTEC long range for the summer, which has backed down a little from it’s much above normal, to slightly above normal:

temp2.glob.JJA2016.1may2016Here is Accuweather Brent Anderson’s outlook for summer; he is a much respected Meteorologists in my books,


His thoughts for a potential stormy July wouldn’t surprise me, while we battle cold shots with warm humid air from the south and Mother Nature perhaps making up for a dry spring.

Enjoy the long weekend 🙂