Here comes our nice cold Arctic air, the below is the temperatures tomorrow morning, could be near 0c for people in SW & Central Ontario.

2m GFS

Now for the good news, here is the temperatures for next Saturday afternoon from the same model (GFS):

2m GFS next Sat

For the long weekend, this should equal temperatures around 20c or higher for most of Ontario and Quebec, and finally cooler in BC.

And to continue the good news, the longer range shows signs of our cold upper level blocking pattern (-NAO) breaking down and becoming a +NAO later this week (Thursday) lasting until near May 26th.  This means above average temperatures in the east, although a slightly wetter pattern could emerge.  The is a really good website which explains the NAO and the AO: Arctic Oscillation & North Atlantic Oscillation

Here’s the proof;  EC’s NAEFS long range finally shows a good chance of above normal temperatures from May 22-29th in the East.  I haven’t seen the NAEFS show above normal since around early March!

NAEFS post

Also the GFS model looks really nice around Thursday May 26th.

GFS May 26

The more reliable Euro model is also supporting this pattern chance (sorry I can’t post pictures of this model).

The words of caution; from the long range models the pattern breakdown and above normal temperatures have been on the perpetual horizon since early April, always in the 2 week forecast but never materializes.  However this time, I think we have better model agreement and hopefully assistance from the other teleconnections that make up upper level patterns.  The other thing to note is some models show things going back to the same old ugly pattern near the end of the month (May 29th) into June.  I think we will likely still have a battle going on in June with colder patterns mixed in until later in the month.

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