First off, it’s such an unfortunate incident out in Fort McMurray, prayers to all those affected.  This one is really the fault of an aggressive El Nino all winter.  Along with almost double above normal average temperatures from January to April, the precipitation for Fort McMurray during that time has only been 41.3 mm (average is 69 mm).  Things look cooler there this week but still no major relief of rain.  We need the warm in the west with cool temps down into Ontario pattern to breakdown to make a major change.

So looking ahead to summer, I have been a little hesitant to post much information on the summer because these long range models aren’t always that accurate and we need the El Nino to quickly break down to change the pattern.  The El Nino has been weakening and should continue to weaken to a neutral state by July if predictions are right.  This could then start us towards a La Nina into the fall and winter. Here is a great article from TWN on El Nino and La Nina  More on that in another post and a potential colder and snowier winter…

Anyway here are some outlooks for the June, July, August period.  First the JAMSTEC long range (the warmest of the models)

temp2.glob.JJA2016.1apr2016Next the CFS, which as only a slight chance of above normal

usT2mSeaInd2Next the NMME which has a 60% chance of warmer than normal.

prob_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1

So there is currently predictions of above normal temperatures this summer.  My feeling is we will have a near normal summer, the warmest temps during the typical peak period, (end of July into August).

I will check the models and outlook again in late May, early June.

 

 

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