Next week continues to have the same similar pattern with colder height anomalies in the east and nice and warm out west.  The models continue to be stubborn in letting this pattern go until the middle of the month, the GFS being the strongest with the pattern. The Euro is not as aggressive with the colder pattern.  However, next week, generally should not be as cold, with most days at or near normal (16c for Ottawa is normal) and only a few days below in between.

Here is the NAEFS long range from EC, likely below normal continues for Ontario:

2016042900_054%40007_E1_north%40america_I_NAEFS%40TEMPERATURE_anomaly%40probability%40combined%40week2_198 (1)

The GFS still has the cooler to near normal temperatures out to May 13th:


Next week will feature a couple smaller weaker low pressure systems with some rain, however, most of those occurrences don’t look to hold more than 10mm of rain.  This dry pattern looks to be a main feature for the month, so I’m sure any rain will be a welcome event for the farmers.  They are probably starting to get a bit concerned, considering most locations had below normal snowfall this season.  I know I’m tired of the dust and getting static shocks on everything I touch, some humidity would be nice 😉

From the Euro long range, things look to get above normal the week of May 16, with near to above normal towards the end of the month.  Those above normals better get really high for my outlook of 1c above normal to come true 🙂