Both EC and TWN are backing down on their forecast for next week.  EC is warmer, TWN is colder, with even a weak cold front Monday into Tuesday and possible snow, especially near the GTA, yikes!  Let’s see who is right…
Looking ahead into May, let’s take a look at some long range models.
First up, is the probability forecast of 2 meter temperatures (the temps that we feel near the ground level) from the NMME (North American models):
prob_ensemble_tmp2m_us_lead1
As you can see Southern and Eastern Ontario and Southern Quebec stand a 60% chance of above normal temperatures.
The IMME (The international model suits) also show above normal temperatures in the area:
IMME_tmp2m_us_lead1
Another model from the CFS, again with above normals:
CFSv2.NaT2m.20160418.201605
All this to say there appears to be some pretty good model agreement on an above normal May.  Now, let’s put that into perspective.  When I say above normal, it doesn’t mean that every day will be 25c and above.  It is an outlook covering the entire month.  The typical average high for May in Ottawa is 19c, and we typically start the month with an average high around 14c and end the month around 20c.
So given the outlook, I would say its a good chance we should end the month with an average high of around 20c to 21c.
Ill do a recap at the end of the month to see how close this forecast held up.
Next week I’ll take a peak into the Summer, hint…
Capturehot
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