This spring has been cool since our early warm up in March. In Ottawa and Toronto temperatures averaged about 1-2c warmer than normal and so far in April Ottawa temperatures are averaging 7c below normal! EC Data
Luckily somebody finally flipped the switch, the jet stream is retreating and the warmth from the west will move in later towards the weekend as temperatures start to return to normal starting Thursday.
This should translate to clear skies and temperatures near or over 20c come Sunday April 17th. However don’t break out those Speedos just yet. The long range has temperatures falling back to normal (around 10c) coming up mid next week into the weekend, but we should still have a various days above normal as we head to the end of the month. The below normal pattern with snow (which was actually a little visit from the Polar Vortex) looks to be done. Things also look a little dry for the rest of the month, with no major low pressure systems moving into S. and E. Ontario from the latest models. More on that later.
Looking further into the Spring, the long range into May is continuing to look above normal for the most part. The 3 month outlook from the JAMSTEC model (not always an accurate one) has the months of March, April and May as above normal. Since we already seen temps a little below normal in March, and possibly ending as below normal in April, we will have to see if temps increase enough in May to average out to an above normal 3 month period.
More on our May pattern next week.